Putting Up Numbers· college football

UTSA @ Florida Atlantic

Thu, Nov 5 · FAU Stadium

The line has it UTSA 40, Florida Atlantic 33.UTSA −7, total 73.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

UTSA at Florida Atlantic: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameUTSA8 gamesFlorida Atlantic8 games
+4.0+4.8
+0.7+14.0
+10+52
+11+117
+0.5+0.5
−8.5+11.9
+1.0%+13.1%
−0.8−0.7
+21.6+10.1
+0.3+0.1
−0.30.0

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Florida Atlantic

  • Florida Atlantic has won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
  • Florida Atlantic is 0.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 80th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

UTSA

  • UTSA’s total yards are 143.1 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 2nd of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
  • UTSA has beaten 8 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
  • UTSA has won 5 straight.streakthe runs →
  • UTSA has won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
  • UTSA is 2.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 41st of 136, and 13.5 worse away than at home over its last 25, 133rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

  • Florida Atlantic leads the series 3–2 since 2014. UTSA has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Florida Atlantic has covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
  • Florida Atlantic is 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
  • Without Kaden Shields-Dutton, Florida Atlantic’s total yards are 146.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
  • In a conference game, Florida Atlantic’s passing yards are 81.8 over expected in 4 games. A +88.7 difference in passing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 20 times in 100.thinthe split →
  • At home, Florida Atlantic’s rushing yards are 53.1 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • UTSA is 3–2–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
  • At night, UTSA’s carries are 6.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • In a conference game, UTSA’s third-down conversion rate are 11.0% over expected in 4 games. A +22.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 19 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 19, 2024at UTSAUTSA 38, Florida Atlantic 24
Oct 21, 2023at Florida AtlanticUTSA 36, Florida Atlantic 10
Oct 31, 2020at Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 24, UTSA 3
Nov 23, 2019at UTSAFlorida Atlantic 40, UTSA 26
Sep 27, 2014at Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 41, UTSA 37

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next