Missouri State @ 
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky 34, Missouri State 13Missouri State was favored by 2, and Western Kentucky covered.
| a game | Missouri State1 game | Western Kentucky1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −17.5 | +1.1 |
| Points allowed | +11.6 | −9.3 |
| Total offense, yards | −49 | +32 |
| Total defense, yards | +97 | −2 |
| Touchdowns | −2.8 | 0.0 |
| Passer rating | −42.5 | −24.4 |
| Third downs | −10.1% | +10.4% |
| Sacks | −2.4 | −0.2 |
| Penalty yards | −23.9 | −0.6 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.2 | −1.2 |
Who put up numbers
Western Kentucky
- Passing yardsBrock Glenn231 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsBrock Glenn1 passing touchdown
- Rushing yardsAjay Allen105 rushing yards
Missouri State
Analysis
Western Kentucky
- Western Kentucky was 10.7 points a game under the closing line this season, 132nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+23.0 against the line this game.
Missouri State
- Missouri State was 6.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 27th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−23.0 against the line this game.
The series
- Western Kentucky leads the series 2–0 since 2025. Western Kentucky has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Western Kentucky had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Western Kentucky had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- In a conference game, Western Kentucky’s rushing yards were 140.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 47.4 over expected.
- At night, Western Kentucky’s carries were 9.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.2 over expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Western Kentucky’s pass attempts were 8.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.1 under expected.
- On the road, Missouri State’s total yards were 144.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.1 under expected.
- At night, Missouri State’s total yards were 144.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.1 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Missouri State’s penalty yards were 34.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 30.2 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | at Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky 34, Missouri State 13 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | at Missouri State | Western Kentucky 27, Missouri State 22 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 7, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.