Missouri State @ Florida International

Sat, Nov 7 · Pitbull Stadium

The line has it Florida International 27, Missouri State 23.Florida International −4.5, total 50, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Missouri State at Florida International: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Missouri State8 games	Florida International8 games
	−6.5	−7.2
	+9.6	−3.3
	−54	−20
	+86	−50
	−1.1	−1.0
	+0.3	−10.8
	−3.1%	+1.5%
	−0.6	−0.1
	+9.4	+0.7
	−0.4	−0.1
	+0.1	+0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Florida International

Florida International is 4.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 116th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Missouri State

Missouri State is 0.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 66th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Missouri State leads the series 1–0 since 2025.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Florida International has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Florida International is 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Sterling Joseph, Florida International’s penalty yards are 41.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Anthony Carrie, Florida International’s penalty yards are 27.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Florida International’s penalty yards are 20.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Missouri State has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Missouri State is 2–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Jmariyae Robinson, Missouri State’s points of margin are 19.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Skyler Locklear’s last game, Missouri State’s penalty yards are 21.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Henry Belin IV, Missouri State’s third-down conversion rate are 10.0% under expected in 4 games. A −17.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected without Henry Belin IV vs with Henry Belin IV is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were without Henry Belin IV and it comes up 17 times in 100.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 29, 2025	at Missouri State	Missouri State 28, Florida International 21

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.