Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee

Sat, Nov 7 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

The line has it Western Kentucky 27, Middle Tennessee 27.a pick ’em, total 53.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Western Kentucky8 games	Middle Tennessee8 games
	−8.0	−4.3
	+9.2	+8.6
	−24	−37
	+39	+42
	−0.9	−0.8
	−34.0	−16.3
	−0.4%	−11.0%
	−0.8	−0.6
	−11.1	−8.9
	−0.2	+0.2
	+0.2	−0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee is 1.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 87th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky is 4.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 114th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Western Kentucky leads the series 12–6 since 2007. Western Kentucky has won the last 7.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Middle Tennessee has covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Without Terrence Brown, Middle Tennessee’s penalty yards are 30.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
After a bye, Middle Tennessee’s carries are 10.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
At home, Middle Tennessee’s carries are 3.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Without Brock Glenn, Western Kentucky’s points allowed are 14.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Le'Kamren Meadows’ last game, Western Kentucky’s rushing yards are 77.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Rodney Tisdale Jr., Western Kentucky’s penalty yards are 16.5 under expected in 5 games. A −32.8 difference in penalty yards over expected without Rodney Tisdale Jr. vs with Rodney Tisdale Jr. is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were without Rodney Tisdale Jr. and it comes up 9 times in 100.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 15, 2025	at Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky 42, Middle Tennessee 26
Sep 14, 2024	at Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky 49, Middle Tennessee 21
Sep 28, 2023	at Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky 31, Middle Tennessee 10
Oct 15, 2022	at Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky 35, Middle Tennessee 17
Nov 6, 2021	at Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky 48, Middle Tennessee 21
Oct 3, 2020	at Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky 20, Middle Tennessee 17
Nov 30, 2019	at Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky 31, Middle Tennessee 26
Nov 2, 2018	at Middle Tennessee	Middle Tennessee 29, Western Kentucky 10
Nov 17, 2017	at Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky 41, Middle Tennessee 38
Oct 15, 2016	at Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky 44, Middle Tennessee 43

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.