Missouri State
3–5 · 2–2 Conference USA · Casey Woods, 1st season
Beat Sam Houston 24–3, Oct 27 · Next: at Florida International, Sat, Nov 7 · analysis
Best by position: quarterbacks · running backs · wide receivers · tight ends · defenders
Against the closing line
Missouri State has beaten the line in 2 of its last 4, 5.4 points a game under it. Over the season it’s 0.5 a game over, 66th of 136.
Of the 8 teams at 3–5 against a schedule this hard, Missouri State’s +0.5 is 4th.
last 4
−5.4
before
+6.4
-20020
Oct 8, 2026 @ Western Kentucky −23.0
Oct 14, 2026 vs Kennesaw State +5.5
Oct 20, 2026 @ Delaware −20.0
Oct 27, 2026 vs Sam Houston +16.0
Lately
- Lost 7 of its last 10count
Nov 29, 2025 vs Louisiana Tech −12
Dec 18, 2025 vs Arkansas State −6
Sep 5 @ Texas A&M −50- L Sep 12 vs Lindenwood +34
Sep 19 vs Marshall −6
Sep 26 @ SMU −10- Oct 8 @ Western Kentucky −21
- Oct 14 vs Kennesaw State +3
- Oct 20 @ Delaware −23
- Oct 27 vs Sam Houston +21
- Failed to cover 6 of its last 10count
- Nov 29, 2025 vs Louisiana Tech −14.5
- Dec 18, 2025 vs Arkansas State −4.5
- Sep 5 @ Texas A&M −10.5
- L Sep 12 vs Lindenwood +17.5
- Sep 19 vs Marshall −2
- Sep 26 @ SMU +20.5
- Oct 8 @ Western Kentucky −23
- Oct 14 vs Kennesaw State +5.5
- Oct 20 @ Delaware −20
- Oct 27 vs Sam Houston +16
- Won 6 of its last 10 at homecount
- Sep 13, 2025 vs SMU −18
- U Sep 20, 2025 vs UT Martin +32
- Sep 27, 2025 vs Western Kentucky −5
Oct 29, 2025 vs Florida International +7
Nov 15, 2025 vs UTEP +14- Nov 29, 2025 vs Louisiana Tech −12
- L Sep 12 vs Lindenwood +34
- Sep 19 vs Marshall −6
- Oct 14 vs Kennesaw State +3
- Oct 27 vs Sam Houston +21
Against expected,
| a game | offense | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −6.5 · 114th | +9.6 · 124th |
| Total yards | −54 · 117th | +86 · 130th |
| Touchdowns | −1.1 · 119th | +1.4 · 126th |
| Passing efficiency | +0.3 · 62nd | +18.3 · 117th |
| 3rd downs | −3.1% · 93rd | +9.2% · 124th |
| Turnovers | +0.1 · 75th | −0.4 · 102nd |
| Sacks | +0.3 · 96th | −0.6 · 104th |
| Penalty yards | +12.1 · 111th |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 136 teams, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten. Penalty yards read against the league’s mean, since nobody allows them.
Seasons
Method
- Against the line is each game’s points of margin less what the closing line expected, from College Football Streak King’s lines. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- A schedule this hard means the mean rating of the opponents it’s played is within 5.2 points of the team’s, two thirds of a standard deviation of the league’s schedules, and a rating is what the season’s games say about a team’s margin against an average team. The teams beside it have its record.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.
- Passing efficiency is the NCAA’s passer rating. Turnovers on offense are the ones it lost, and on defense the ones it forced. Sacks on offense are the ones its quarterbacks took, and they start in 2024.