Putting Up Numbers· college football

Southern Miss @ Troy

Tue, Oct 6, 2026

Troy 55, Southern Miss 34Troy was favored by 9.5, and Troy covered.

Southern Miss at Troy: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameSouthern Miss1 gameTroy1 game
Points+10.8+24.1
Points allowed+33.2+11.8
Total offense, yards+173+239
Total defense, yards+313+156
Touchdowns+2.3+3.4
Passer rating+33.2+68.8
Third downs−4.1%+16.5%
Sacks−0.2−0.2
Penalty yards−32.3+29.7
Turnovers forced−1.2+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.7−1.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Troy

Southern Miss

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Troy

  • Troy was 2.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 91st of 136.fact · rankedits form →+11.5 against the line this game.

Southern Miss

  • Southern Miss was 3.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 44th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−11.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Troy leads the series 7–3 since 1977. Troy has won the last 6.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Troy had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Troy’s pass attempts were 10.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.8 under expected.
  • At home, Troy’s points of margin were 14.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.8 over expected.
  • Southern Miss had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Southern Miss had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, Southern Miss’ penalty yards were 30.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 38.4 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 6, 2026at TroyTroy 55, Southern Miss 34
Nov 29, 2025at Southern MissTroy 28, Southern Miss 18
Nov 30, 2024at TroyTroy 52, Southern Miss 20
Nov 25, 2023at Southern MissTroy 35, Southern Miss 17
Oct 8, 2022at TroyTroy 27, Southern Miss 10
Sep 18, 2021at Southern MissTroy 21, Southern Miss 9
Sep 14, 2019at TroySouthern Miss 47, Troy 42
Sep 17, 2016at Southern MissTroy 37, Southern Miss 31
Dec 21, 2008neutralSouthern Miss 30, Troy 27
Sep 3, 1977neutralSouthern Miss 42, Troy 19

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 5, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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