James Madison @ Southern Miss

Thu, Nov 5 · M. M. Roberts Stadium

The line has it James Madison 37, Southern Miss 22.James Madison −14.5, total 58.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

James Madison at Southern Miss: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	James Madison9 games	Southern Miss8 games
	+7.1	−4.3
	−3.9	+11.0
	+65	−9
	+8	+105
	+1.2	−0.3
	+15.8	−17.2
	−1.6%	−9.7%
	+0.9	+0.7
	+16.9	+10.6
	+0.2	−0.5
	0.0	+0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Southern Miss

Southern Miss is 3.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 36th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

James Madison

James Madison is 7.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 12th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

James Madison leads the series 1–0 since 2024.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Southern Miss has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Southern Miss is 2–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Landry Lyddy, Southern Miss’ carries are 7.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Southern Miss’ pass attempts are 7.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
At night, Southern Miss’ carries are 7.3 under expected in 4 games. A −13.7 difference in carries over expected at night vs by day is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at night and it comes up 9 times in 100.thinthe split →
James Madison has won 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →
James Madison has beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
James Madison has covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →
James Madison is 5–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Since George Pettaway’s last game, James Madison’s points are 15.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, James Madison’s third-down conversion rate are 12.1% under expected in 4 games. A −20.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinthe split →
At night, James Madison’s third-down conversion rate are 10.0% under expected in 5 games. A −21.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected at night vs by day is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at night and it comes up 8 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 26, 2024	at James Madison	James Madison 32, Southern Miss 15

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.