Louisiana Tech @ Troy

Sat, Nov 7 · Veterans Memorial Stadium

The line has it Louisiana Tech 26, Troy 22.Louisiana Tech −4.5, total 47.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Louisiana Tech at Troy: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Louisiana Tech8 games	Troy8 games
	−0.6	−5.3
	−4.3	+0.6
	−6	−19
	−19	−8
	+0.4	−0.4
	+24.6	−14.4
	0.0%	−5.4%
	+0.9	−0.4
	+5.6	+3.3
	+0.9	+0.5
	−0.1	+0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Troy

Troy is 2.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 103rd of 136, and 8.7 worse at home than away over its last 25, 131st of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech’s total yards are 170.4 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
Louisiana Tech has covered 5 straight on the road, the longest active road cover streak in FBS.streakthe runs →
Louisiana Tech has beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
Louisiana Tech has won 5 straight.streakthe runs →
Louisiana Tech has won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →
Louisiana Tech is 8.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 8th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

If you squint

Troy has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Troy is 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Since Goose Crowder’s last game, Troy’s points allowed are 15.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Troy’s pass attempts are 6.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
In a conference game, Troy’s pass attempts are 6.5 under expected in 4 games. A −13.6 difference in pass attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →
Louisiana Tech has covered 8 of its last 10.countits form →
Louisiana Tech is 4–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Blake Baker, Louisiana Tech’s penalty yards are 26.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Trey Kukuk, Louisiana Tech’s rushing yards are 39.0 under expected in 5 games. A −115.1 difference in rushing yards over expected without Trey Kukuk vs with Trey Kukuk is unusual: shuffle which games were without Trey Kukuk and it comes up 5 times in 100.thinwithout him →
On the road, Louisiana Tech’s passing yards are 53.2 under expected in 4 games. A −133.9 difference in passing yards over expected away vs at home is unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.