Louisville @ 
NC State
NC State 31, Louisville 28Louisville was favored by 4.5, and NC State covered.
| a game | Louisville1 game | NC State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +3.1 | +0.9 |
| Points allowed | +0.5 | −4.5 |
| Total offense, yards | +120 | +82 |
| Total defense, yards | +109 | +59 |
| Touchdowns | +0.8 | −0.6 |
| Passer rating | +16.9 | +7.6 |
| Third downs | +7.2% | +17.0% |
| Sacks | +0.3 | +1.0 |
| Penalty yards | −18.1 | +5.9 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.2 | +1.7 |
| Turnovers lost | +1.9 | −0.4 |
Who put up numbers
NC State
- Passing yardsCJ Bailey373 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsCJ Bailey2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsDavion Gause69 rushing yards
Louisville
Analysis
NC State
- NC State had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
- NC State was 3.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 46th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+7.5 against the line this game.
Louisville
- Louisville was 0.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 70th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−7.5 against the line this game.
The series
- Louisville leads the series 9–5 since 1951.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- In a conference game, NC State’s total yards were 187.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 149.8 over expected.
- At home, NC State’s third-down conversion rate were 23.9% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.4% over expected.
- Louisville had won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Against an unranked opponent, Louisville’s rushing yards were 118.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 34.4 over expected.
- In a conference game, Louisville’s penalty yards were 45.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 22.2 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | at NC State | NC State 31, Louisville 28 |
| Sep 29, 2023 | at NC State | Louisville 13, NC State 10 |
| Nov 19, 2022 | at Louisville | Louisville 25, NC State 10 |
| Oct 30, 2021 | at NC State | NC State 28, Louisville 13 |
| Nov 16, 2019 | at NC State | Louisville 34, NC State 20 |
| Nov 17, 2018 | at Louisville | NC State 52, Louisville 10 |
| Oct 5, 2017 | at NC State | NC State 39, Louisville 25 |
| Oct 22, 2016 | at Louisville | Louisville 54, NC State 13 |
| Oct 3, 2015 | at NC State | Louisville 20, NC State 13 |
| Oct 18, 2014 | at Louisville | Louisville 30, NC State 18 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.