Louisville @ Georgia Tech

Sat, Nov 7 · Bobby Dodd Stadium

The line has it Louisville 38, Georgia Tech 24.Louisville −14.5, total 61.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Louisville at Georgia Tech: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Louisville8 games	Georgia Tech8 games
	+10.6	−4.2
	+0.9	+8.9
	+99	−12
	+45	+58
	+1.6	−0.8
	+20.1	−2.6
	+5.2%	−5.7%
	+0.7	−0.9
	+12.1	+6.4
	+0.6	−0.6
	−0.3	+0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is 8.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 134th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Louisville

Louisville is 1.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 50th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The series is tied 2–2 since 2018. Louisville has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Georgia Tech has lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →
Georgia Tech has failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →
Georgia Tech is 1–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Justice Haynes, Georgia Tech’s passing yards are 94.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Kyle Efford, Georgia Tech’s third-down conversion rate are 15.2% under expected in 4 games. A −26.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected without Kyle Efford vs with Kyle Efford is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were without Kyle Efford and it comes up 5 times in 100.thinwithout him →
At night, Georgia Tech’s pass attempts are 7.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Louisville has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Louisville has won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →
Louisville is 4–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Keyjuan Brown, Louisville’s rushing yards are 213.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At night, Louisville’s pass attempts are 5.9 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
On the road, Louisville’s carries are 4.9 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Sep 21, 2024	at Louisville	Louisville 31, Georgia Tech 19
Sep 1, 2023	neutral	Louisville 39, Georgia Tech 34
Oct 9, 2020	at Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech 46, Louisville 27
Oct 5, 2018	at Louisville	Georgia Tech 66, Louisville 31

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.