San Diego State @ 
Toledo
Toledo 41, San Diego State 16Toledo was favored by 2.5, and Toledo covered.
| a game | San Diego State1 game | Toledo1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −8.9 | +6.1 |
| Points allowed | +8.9 | −7.4 |
| Total offense, yards | −58 | +55 |
| Total defense, yards | +49 | −22 |
| Touchdowns | −0.9 | −0.2 |
| Passer rating | +4.0 | +81.9 |
| Third downs | −16.6% | +9.2% |
| Sacks | −1.4 | +1.5 |
| Penalty yards | −17.2 | +30.0 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.2 | +0.8 |
| Turnovers lost | +0.7 | −1.2 |
Who put up numbers
Toledo
- Passing yardsJohn Alan Richter284 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsJohn Alan Richter3 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsAutavius Ison89 rushing yards
San Diego State
Analysis
Toledo
- Toledo’s points were 15.2 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 2nd of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 8.8 over expected.
- Toledo had won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 9.
- Toledo was 4.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 49th of 135, and 12.1 better at home than away over its last 25, 5th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+22.5 against the line this game.
San Diego State
- San Diego State was 9.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 119th of 135.fact · rankedits form →−22.5 against the line this game.
The series
- The series is tied 1–1 since 2022.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Toledo had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- At home, Toledo’s pass attempts were 20.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.5 under expected.
- On the road, San Diego State’s passing yards were 109.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 59.0 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | at Toledo | Toledo 41, San Diego State 16 |
| Sep 24, 2022 | at San Diego State | San Diego State 17, Toledo 14 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 25, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.