Putting Up Numbers· college football

UTSA @ Texas State

Sat, Sep 12, 2026

UTSA 31, Texas State 26Texas State was favored by 1.5, and UTSA covered.

UTSA at Texas State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameUTSA1 gameTexas State1 game
Points+1.6−3.8
Points allowed−9.3+3.8
Total offense, yards+8+93
Total defense, yards+12+25
Touchdowns+0.4−0.4
Passer rating−4.7−35.5
Third downs−19.9%+14.4%
Sacks−1.7−1.9
Penalty yards+58.5+33.1
Turnovers forced+1.8−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.2+1.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Texas State

UTSA

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Texas State

  • Texas State had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.

UTSA

  • UTSA’s points were 21.4 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 1.1 under expected.

The series

If you squint

  • Texas State had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 12, 2026at Texas StateUTSA 31, Texas State 26
Sep 6, 2025at UTSATexas State 43, UTSA 36
Sep 7, 2024at Texas StateTexas State 49, UTSA 10
Sep 9, 2023at UTSAUTSA 20, Texas State 13
Sep 12, 2020at Texas StateUTSA 51, Texas State 48
Sep 22, 2018at UTSAUTSA 25, Texas State 21
Sep 23, 2017at Texas StateUTSA 44, Texas State 14
Nov 24, 2012at UTSAUTSA 38, Texas State 31

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 11, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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