Texas State @ Oregon State

Sat, Nov 7 · Reser Stadium

The line has it Oregon State 39, Texas State 33.Oregon State −6.5, total 72, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Texas State at Oregon State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Texas State8 games	Oregon State8 games
	+5.9	+9.9
	+7.7	0.0
	+101	+114
	+36	−11
	+0.9	+1.6
	+11.2	+26.8
	+12.4%	+6.1%
	−1.2	0.0
	−0.1	+2.5
	−0.5	−0.1
	+0.2	−0.5

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Oregon State

Oregon State’s carries are 10.3 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
Oregon State is 11.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 3rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Texas State

Texas State has won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
Texas State is 1.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 50th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

If you squint

Oregon State is 4–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
In a conference game, Oregon State’s third-down conversion rate are 15.0% over expected in 4 games. A +23.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 17 times in 100.thinthe split →
At home, Oregon State’s points are 13.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
At night, Oregon State’s carries are 7.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Texas State has beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Since Jaylen Jenkins’ last game, Texas State’s carries are 11.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Beau Sparks, Texas State’s penalty yards are 31.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Davian Jackson, Texas State’s passing yards are 67.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.