Putting Up Numbers· college football

UCF @ Pittsburgh

Sat, Sep 12, 2026

Pittsburgh 12, UCF 7Pittsburgh was favored by 7, and UCF covered.

UCF at Pittsburgh: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameUCF1 gamePittsburgh1 game
Points−15.1−18.6
Points allowed−19.8−19.7
Total offense, yards−150−97
Total defense, yards−119−147
Touchdowns−1.9−2.5
Passer rating−11.0−19.5
Third downs−7.2%−15.0%
Sacks−0.5+1.8
Penalty yards−7.6+6.7
Turnovers forced−1.2−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.3−1.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Pittsburgh

UCF

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Pittsburgh

  • Pittsburgh’s penalty yards were 41.5 lower after a bye than on a normal week against expected over its last 25 games, 118th of 118 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 6.0 over expected.
  • Pittsburgh had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Pittsburgh had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

The series

  • Pittsburgh leads the series 3–1 since 2006. Pittsburgh has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Pittsburgh had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Pittsburgh had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • UCF had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • UCF had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 12, 2026at PittsburghPittsburgh 12, UCF 7
Sep 21, 2019at PittsburghPittsburgh 35, UCF 34
Sep 29, 2018at UCFUCF 45, Pittsburgh 14
Oct 13, 2006at UCFPittsburgh 52, UCF 7

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 11, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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