Florida State @ Pittsburgh

Sat, Nov 14 · Acrisure Stadium

No line yet.

Florida State at Pittsburgh: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Florida State8 games	Pittsburgh9 games
	+5.3	+1.8
	+3.3	−5.1
	+50	+27
	+61	−35
	+1.2	+0.2
	+6.8	−12.5
	+0.3%	−1.2%
	+0.7	+0.5
	−12.3	+11.5
	−0.4	+0.3
	+0.6	+0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is 2.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 42nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Florida State

Florida State is 2.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 98th of 136, and 12.2 worse away than at home over its last 25, 129th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Pittsburgh leads the series 7–5 since 1971.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Pittsburgh has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Pittsburgh has beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
At home, Pittsburgh’s points allowed are 9.8 under expected in 5 games. A −22.4 difference in points allowed over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 4 times in 100.thinthe split →
Florida State has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Since Ousmane Kromah’s last game, Florida State’s third-down conversion rate are 30.5% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
After a bye, Florida State’s passing yards are 158.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
On the road, Florida State’s penalty yards are 23.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 11, 2025	at Florida State	Pittsburgh 34, Florida State 31
Nov 4, 2023	at Pittsburgh	Florida State 24, Pittsburgh 7
Nov 7, 2020	at Florida State	Pittsburgh 41, Florida State 17
Sep 2, 2013	at Pittsburgh	Florida State 41, Pittsburgh 13
Oct 8, 1983	at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh 17, Florida State 16
Sep 18, 1982	at Florida State	Pittsburgh 37, Florida State 17
Oct 17, 1981	at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh 42, Florida State 14
Oct 11, 1980	at Florida State	Florida State 36, Pittsburgh 22
Oct 21, 1978	at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh 7, Florida State 3
Sep 14, 1974	at Florida State	Pittsburgh 9, Florida State 6

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.