Pittsburgh’s penalty yards after a bye and on a normal week
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Pittsburgh was 21.5 yards under after a bye and 14.6 yards over on a normal week over its last 25 games, 2 games against 18. The plain averages are 39.5 and 78.8, a difference of 39.3. All 10 away games were on a normal week.
2 games after a bye is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
penalty yards a game over expected
after a bye
−21.5
on a normal week
+14.6
050
A −36.1 difference in penalty yards over expected after a bye vs on a normal week is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up 8 times in 100.
plain
39.5
78.8
50100150
A −39.3 difference in penalty yards after a bye vs on a normal week is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
after a byeon a normal week
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Louisville | L | 45 | 53.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | 48 | 57.8 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Toledo (neutral) | L | 41 | 63.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Duquesne | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 63 | 61.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ West Virginia | L | 118 | 58.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLouisville | L | 38 | 61.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsBoston College | W | 70 | 64.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 55 | 61.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Syracuse | W | 109 | 57.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 46 | 64.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Stanford | W | 93 | 61.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 41 | 61.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 80 | 61.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 88 | 47.6 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs East Carolina (neutral) | L | 35 | 62.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 38 | 59.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 64 | 58.0 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vsSyracuse | W | 72 | 61.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Bucknell | W | 165 | — | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 58 | 60.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs North Carolina | L | 42 | 54.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Boston College | L | 133 | 59.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Miami (FL) | L | 54 | 63.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 95 | 62.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bucknell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- 4 games in 2024 and 2025 and 2026 are neither after a bye nor on a normal week, and sit out.