Patriots @ Dolphins

Sun, Nov 1, 2026

Patriots 24, Dolphins 19The Patriots were favored by 7, and the Dolphins covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The Dolphins were 2.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 23rd of 32.fact · rankedits form →+2.0 against the line this game.

The Patriots had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
The Patriots were 2.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 8th of 32.fact · rankedits form →−2.0 against the line this game.

The Dolphins lead the series 64–58 since 1966. The Patriots have won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

The Dolphins had lost 8 of their last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
The Dolphins were 2–3–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
Against a division opponent, the Dolphins' carries were 13.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.4 under expected.
At home, the Dolphins' rushing yards were 56.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 37.4 under expected.
The Patriots had won 7 of their last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Against a division opponent, the Patriots' sacks taken were 1.9 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.0 over expected.
On the road, the Patriots' points of margin were 9.0 under expected in 4 games. A −25.7 difference in points of margin over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 1.3 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 31, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.