Packers @ Patriots

Sun, Nov 8 · Gillette Stadium

The line has it Patriots 25, Packers 22.Patriots −3, total 46.5, as of Nov 4. A line moves until kickoff. From nflverse’s schedule file, which doesn’t name a book.

Packers at Patriots: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Packers8 games	Patriots8 games
	−1.6	+0.1
	−3.0	−3.5
	−5	+34
	−20	−26
	+47	+20
	−54	+13
	+0.2	+1.4
	−0.6	−0.3
	+0.1	+0.6
	+0.7	−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Patriots

The Patriots have won 6 straight at home, tied for the longest active home winning streak in the NFL.streakthe runs →
The Patriots are 1.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 11th of 32.fact · rankedits form →

Packers

The Packers have covered 4 straight, tied for the longest active cover streak in the NFL.streakthe runs →
The Packers are 0.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 14th of 32.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The Packers lead the series 7–6 since 1973.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

The Patriots have covered 7 of their last 10 at home.countits form →
The Patriots are 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without TreVeyon Henderson, the Patriots' points are 6.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Romeo Doubs’ last game, the Patriots' pass attempts are 5.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, the Patriots' points of margin are 16.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
The Packers are 3–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Since Jonnu Smith’s last game, the Packers' turnovers are 1.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, the Packers' rushing yards are 22.3 under expected in 4 games. A +26.4 difference in rushing yards over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 19 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 2, 2022	at Packers	Packers 27, Patriots 24
Nov 4, 2018	at Patriots	Patriots 31, Packers 17
Nov 30, 2014	at Packers	Packers 26, Patriots 21
Dec 19, 2010	at Patriots	Patriots 31, Packers 27
Nov 19, 2006	at Packers	Patriots 35, Packers 0
Oct 13, 2002	at Patriots	Packers 28, Patriots 10
Oct 27, 1997	at Patriots	Packers 28, Patriots 10
Jan 26, 1997	neutral	Packers 35, Patriots 21
Oct 2, 1994	at Patriots	Patriots 17, Packers 16
Oct 9, 1988	at Packers	Packers 45, Patriots 3

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.