Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Chiefs @ Broncos

Sun, Nov 1, 2026

Broncos 28, Chiefs 24The Broncos were favored by 1.5, and the Broncos covered.

Chiefs at Broncos: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameChiefs1 gameBroncos1 game
Points+1.5+5.8
Points allowed+5.5+0.9
Total offense, yards+60−44
Total defense, yards−21+50
Passing yards+87−12
Rushing yards−26−34
Yards an attempt+0.9−0.1
Sacks taken−0.4−1.2
Turnovers−1.2−1.1
Turnovers forced−1.2−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Broncos

Chiefs

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Broncos

  • The Broncos had covered 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
  • The Broncos were 0.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 18th of 32, and 8.1 better at home than away over their last 35, 2nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →+2.5 against the line this game.

Chiefs

  • The Chiefs' carries were 7.3 higher at home than away against expected over their last 35 games, 1st of 32 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 3.0 under expected.
  • The Chiefs were 2.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 9th of 32, and 7.8 worse away than at home over their last 35, 29th of 32.fact · rankedits form →−2.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • The Chiefs lead the series 63–59 since 1966. The Broncos have won 4 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • The Broncos had covered 8 of their last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • The Broncos had won 8 of their last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • The Broncos had won 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • The Broncos were 4–0 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • Against a division opponent, the Broncos' passing yards were 93.0 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.1 under expected.
  • At home, the Broncos' points allowed were 5.6 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.8 over expected.
  • Against a division opponent, the Chiefs' rushing yards were 65.2 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 33.6 under expected.
  • On the road, the Chiefs' pass attempts were 4.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.3 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Nov 1, 2026at BroncosBroncos 28, Chiefs 24
Sep 14, 2026at ChiefsChiefs 31, Broncos 10
Dec 25, 2025at ChiefsBroncos 20, Chiefs 13
Nov 16, 2025at BroncosBroncos 22, Chiefs 19
Jan 5, 2025at BroncosBroncos 38, Chiefs 0
Nov 10, 2024at ChiefsChiefs 16, Broncos 14
Oct 29, 2023at BroncosBroncos 24, Chiefs 9
Oct 12, 2023at ChiefsChiefs 19, Broncos 8
Jan 1, 2023at ChiefsChiefs 27, Broncos 24
Dec 11, 2022at BroncosChiefs 34, Broncos 28

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 31, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.