The Chiefs' carries at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Chiefs were 2.4 carries over at home and 5.3 carries under away over their last 35 games, 17 games against 16. The plain averages are 28.6 and 21.5, a difference of 7.1. Both playoff games were at home.
The Chiefs' +7.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 32 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 35 games.
carries a game over expected
at home
+2.4
away
−5.3
-10010
A +7.7 difference in carries over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
28.6
21.5
203040
A +7.1 difference in carries at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 17 | 26.9 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ CAR | W | 26 | 32.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs LV | W | 16 | 27.4 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs LAC | W | 25 | 26.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ CLE | W | 35 | 26.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs HOU | W | 28 | 25.3 | |
| Dec 25, 2024 | @ PIT | W | 20 | 25.6 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ DEN | L | 11 | 27.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vsHOU | W | 21 | 25.9 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vsBUF | W | 35 | 25.4 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vs PHI (neutral) | L | 11 | 24.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsLAC (neutral) | L | 17 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsPHI | L | 26 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 28 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs BAL | W | 32 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 6, 2025 | @ JAX | L | 22 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs DET | W | 29 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsLV | W | 41 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 30 | 27.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @BUF | L | 20 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @DEN | L | 14 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs IND | W | 41 | 25.4 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | @ DAL | L | 23 | 26.0 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsHOU | L | 29 | 24.5 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsLAC | L | 21 | 26.0 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ TEN | L | 15 | 26.5 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDEN | L | 19 | 25.9 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @LV | L | 23 | 27.8 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vsDEN | W | 38 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsIND | W | 29 | 26.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 25 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @LV | W | 25 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsLAC | W | 27 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 16 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DEN | L | 24 | 27.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.