Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Falcons @ Buccaneers

Sun, Nov 1, 2026

Buccaneers 16, Falcons 0The Buccaneers were favored by 2.5, and the Buccaneers covered.

Falcons at Buccaneers: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameFalcons1 gameBuccaneers1 game
Points−22.7−7.4
Points allowed−7.2−23.3
Total offense, yards−113−27
Total defense, yards−12−123
Passing yards−109−235
Rushing yards−7+215
Yards an attempt−1.8−7.1
Sacks taken−2.3−1.3
Turnovers+2.9−0.2
Turnovers forced−0.3+2.6

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Buccaneers

Falcons

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Buccaneers

  • The Buccaneers were 3.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 6th of 32, and 5.3 worse at home than away over their last 35, 30th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+13.5 against the line this game.

Falcons

  • The Falcons were 1.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 10th of 32, and 5.0 better away than at home over their last 35, 4th of 32.fact · rankedits form →−13.5 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • The Buccaneers had lost 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • The Buccaneers had failed to cover 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Against a division opponent, the Buccaneers' carries were 21.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 29.2 over expected.
  • At home, the Buccaneers' sacks taken were 1.8 over expected in 4 games. A +2.5 difference in sacks taken over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 17 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 1.5 under expected.
  • The Falcons were 3–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • On the road, the Falcons' rushing yards were 74.4 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 18.3 under expected.
  • Against a division opponent, the Falcons' rushing yards were 51.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 18.3 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Nov 1, 2026at BuccaneersBuccaneers 16, Falcons 0
Dec 11, 2025at BuccaneersFalcons 29, Buccaneers 28
Sep 7, 2025at FalconsBuccaneers 23, Falcons 20
Oct 27, 2024at BuccaneersFalcons 31, Buccaneers 26
Oct 3, 2024at FalconsFalcons 36, Buccaneers 30
Dec 10, 2023at FalconsBuccaneers 29, Falcons 25
Oct 22, 2023at BuccaneersFalcons 16, Buccaneers 13
Jan 8, 2023at FalconsFalcons 30, Buccaneers 17
Oct 9, 2022at BuccaneersBuccaneers 21, Falcons 15
Dec 5, 2021at FalconsBuccaneers 30, Falcons 17

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 31, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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