Bengals vs Falcons

Sun, Nov 8 · Bernabeu

The line has it Bengals 28, Falcons 25.Bengals −3, total 52.5, as of Nov 4. A line moves until kickoff. From nflverse’s schedule file, which doesn’t name a book.

Bengals vs Falcons: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Bengals7 games	Falcons8 games
	+6.8	−1.6
	−0.2	+0.3
	+38	−9
	+45	+5
	+68	−33
	−30	+24
	+0.6	+0.2
	−0.5	−0.3
	+0.2	+0.8
	+0.4	0.0

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Falcons

The Falcons are 0.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 15th of 32.fact · rankedits form →

Bengals

The Bengals are 2.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 9th of 32.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The Bengals lead the series 10–5 since 1971. The Bengals have won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

The Falcons are 3–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons' turnovers are 2.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Brian Robinson’s last game, the Falcons' sacks taken are 2.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
The Bengals have won 7 of their last 10.countits form →
The Bengals are 2–3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without B.J. Hill, the Bengals' carries are 6.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 23, 2022	at Bengals	Bengals 35, Falcons 17
Sep 30, 2018	at Falcons	Bengals 37, Falcons 36
Sep 14, 2014	at Bengals	Bengals 24, Falcons 10
Oct 24, 2010	at Falcons	Falcons 39, Bengals 32
Oct 29, 2006	at Bengals	Falcons 29, Bengals 27
Sep 22, 2002	at Falcons	Falcons 30, Bengals 3
Nov 24, 1996	at Bengals	Bengals 41, Falcons 31
Dec 26, 1993	at Bengals	Bengals 21, Falcons 17
Oct 28, 1990	at Falcons	Falcons 38, Bengals 17
Nov 15, 1987	at Falcons	Bengals 16, Falcons 10

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.