Buccaneers @ Bears

Sun, Nov 8 · Soldier Field

The line has it Bears 27, Buccaneers 21.Bears −6, total 47.5, as of Nov 4. A line moves until kickoff. From nflverse’s schedule file, which doesn’t name a book.

Buccaneers at Bears: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Buccaneers8 games	Bears8 games
	−0.6	+4.0
	−4.3	−2.7
	−33	+65
	−49	−23
	−87	+21
	+55	+38
	−1.9	+0.5
	+0.5	+0.1
	+0.3	+0.2
	+0.8	+0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Bears

The Bears' points allowed are 10.3 lower at home than away against expected over their last 35 games, 32nd of 32 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
The Bears are 5.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 2nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →

Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are 4.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 3rd of 32, and 4.3 better away than at home over their last 35, 3rd of 32.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The Bears lead the series 40–22 since 1977. The Buccaneers have won the last 2. The Bears have won 3 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

The Bears have covered 8 of their last 10.countits form →
The Bears have won 7 of their last 10.countits form →
The Bears have won 7 of their last 10 at home.countits form →
The Bears are 4–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Caleb Williams, the Bears' turnovers are 1.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
The Buccaneers are 2–3–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Since Emeka Egbuka’s last game, the Buccaneers' rushing yards are 170.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Sean Tucker, the Buccaneers' turnovers are 1.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Antoine Winfield Jr., the Buccaneers' rushing yards are 70.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Sep 17, 2023	at Buccaneers	Buccaneers 27, Bears 17
Oct 24, 2021	at Buccaneers	Buccaneers 38, Bears 3
Oct 8, 2020	at Bears	Bears 20, Buccaneers 19
Sep 30, 2018	at Bears	Bears 48, Buccaneers 10
Sep 17, 2017	at Buccaneers	Buccaneers 29, Bears 7
Nov 13, 2016	at Buccaneers	Buccaneers 36, Bears 10
Dec 27, 2015	at Buccaneers	Bears 26, Buccaneers 21
Nov 23, 2014	at Bears	Bears 21, Buccaneers 13
Oct 23, 2011	neutral	Bears 24, Buccaneers 18
Sep 21, 2008	at Bears	Buccaneers 27, Bears 24

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.