Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Bears @ Falcons

Sun, Oct 18, 2026

Bears 31, Falcons 23The Bears were favored by 1.5, and the Bears covered.

Bears at Falcons: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBears1 gameFalcons1 game
Points+8.1+0.4
Points allowed+0.3+7.3
Total offense, yards+57−54
Total defense, yards−58+35
Passing yards+71−9
Rushing yards−16−46
Yards an attempt+1.7−0.6
Sacks taken+1.7+2.7
Turnovers−0.3+1.7
Turnovers forced+1.6−0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Falcons

Bears

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Falcons

  • The Falcons were 1.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 11th of 32, and 6.1 worse at home than away over their last 35, 31st of 32.fact · rankedits form →−6.5 against the line this game.

Bears

  • The Bears' points allowed were 10.4 lower at home than away against expected over their last 35 games, 32nd of 32 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 0.7 over expected.
  • The Bears were 2.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 9th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+6.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • The Bears lead the series 17–14 since 1966. The Bears have won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • The Falcons were 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • At home, the Falcons' points of margin were 22.0 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.0 under expected.
  • The Bears were 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • On the road, the Bears' turnovers were 1.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.3 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 18, 2026at FalconsBears 31, Falcons 23
Dec 31, 2023at BearsBears 37, Falcons 17
Nov 20, 2022at FalconsFalcons 27, Bears 24
Sep 27, 2020at FalconsBears 30, Falcons 26
Sep 10, 2017at BearsFalcons 23, Bears 17
Oct 12, 2014at FalconsBears 27, Falcons 13
Sep 11, 2011at BearsBears 30, Falcons 12
Oct 18, 2009at FalconsFalcons 21, Bears 14
Oct 12, 2008at FalconsFalcons 22, Bears 20
Dec 18, 2005at BearsBears 16, Falcons 3

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 17, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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