Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Bills @ Raiders

Sun, Oct 18, 2026

Bills 33, Raiders 30The Bills were favored by 5.5, and the Raiders covered.

Bills at Raiders: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBills1 gameRaiders1 game
Points+9.2+6.5
Points allowed+5.7+7.4
Total offense, yards−1+26
Total defense, yards+31−13
Passing yards+21+78
Rushing yards−16−46
Yards an attempt+0.4+0.6
Sacks taken−0.3−2.3
Turnovers−1.1−0.2
Turnovers forced−0.2−1.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Raiders

Bills

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Raiders

  • The Raiders were 3.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 7th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+2.5 against the line this game.

Bills

  • The Bills were 1.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 12th of 32.fact · rankedits form →−2.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • The Raiders lead the series 17–15 since 1966. The Bills have won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • The Raiders had covered 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • The Raiders were 3–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
  • At home, the Raiders’ sacks taken were 2.0 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.2 under expected.
  • The Bills had won 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • The Bills had won 7 of their last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • The Bills were 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • On the road, the Bills’ pass attempts were 8.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.9 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 18, 2026at RaidersBills 33, Raiders 30
Sep 17, 2023at BillsBills 38, Raiders 10
Oct 4, 2020at RaidersBills 30, Raiders 23
Oct 29, 2017at BillsBills 34, Raiders 14
Dec 4, 2016at RaidersRaiders 38, Bills 24
Dec 21, 2014at RaidersRaiders 26, Bills 24
Sep 18, 2011at BillsBills 38, Raiders 35
Sep 21, 2008at BillsBills 24, Raiders 23
Oct 23, 2005at RaidersRaiders 38, Bills 17
Sep 19, 2004at RaidersRaiders 13, Bills 10

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 17, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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