Bills @ Vikings

Mon, Nov 9 · U.S. Bank Stadium

The line has it Bills 25, Vikings 21.Bills −3.5, total 45.5, as of Nov 4. A line moves until kickoff. From nflverse’s schedule file, which doesn’t name a book.

Bills at Vikings: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Bills7 games	Vikings7 games
	+10.2	−3.3
	+2.8	−10.1
	+58	−50
	+13	−53
	+22	−49
	+37	+2
	+1.8	−0.6
	−0.5	+0.7
	+0.3	−0.5
	0.0	+0.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Vikings

The Vikings have won 6 straight at home, tied for the longest active home winning streak in the NFL.streakthe runs →
The Vikings are 4.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 4th of 32, and 6.8 better at home than away over their last 35, 5th of 32.fact · rankedits form →

Bills

The Bills are 3.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 7th of 32.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The Vikings lead the series 9–6 since 1971.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

The Vikings have won 9 of their last 10.countits form →
The Vikings have covered 7 of their last 10.countits form →
Without Jauan Jennings, the Vikings' points allowed are 20.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Jordan Addison, the Vikings' carries are 8.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Justin Jefferson, the Vikings' pass attempts are 9.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
The Bills have won 8 of their last 10.countits form →
The Bills have covered 7 of their last 10.countits form →
The Bills have won 7 of their last 10 on the road.countits form →
The Bills are 4–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Ty Johnson, the Bills' turnovers are 1.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without DJ Moore, the Bills' points allowed are 7.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, the Bills' points allowed are 7.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 13, 2022	at Bills	Vikings 33, Bills 30
Sep 23, 2018	at Vikings	Bills 27, Vikings 6
Oct 19, 2014	at Bills	Bills 17, Vikings 16
Dec 5, 2010	at Vikings	Vikings 38, Bills 14
Oct 1, 2006	at Bills	Bills 17, Vikings 12
Sep 15, 2002	at Vikings	Bills 45, Vikings 39
Oct 22, 2000	at Vikings	Vikings 31, Bills 27
Aug 31, 1997	at Bills	Vikings 34, Bills 13
Dec 11, 1994	at Bills	Vikings 21, Bills 17
Sep 4, 1988	at Bills	Bills 13, Vikings 10

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.