Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Bills @ Rams

Mon, Oct 12, 2026

Bills 37, Rams 34The Rams were favored by 3.5, and the Bills covered.

Bills at Rams: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBills1 gameRams1 game
Points+14.9+10.6
Points allowed+10.9+11.3
Total offense, yards+113+112
Total defense, yards+97+79
Passing yards−24+150
Rushing yards+125−34
Yards an attempt+4.20.0
Sacks taken−1.2−1.3
Turnovers+0.6−1.2
Turnovers forced−1.4+0.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Rams

Bills

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Rams

  • The Rams had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • The Rams had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • The Rams were 2.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 22nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →−6.5 against the line this game.

Bills

  • The Bills were 0.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 16th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+6.5 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • At home, the Rams’ points allowed were 16.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.4 over expected.
  • The Bills had won 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, the Bills’ passing yards were 87.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 18.0 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 12, 2026at RamsBills 37, Rams 34
Dec 8, 2024at RamsRams 44, Bills 42
Sep 8, 2022at RamsBills 31, Rams 10
Sep 27, 2020at BillsBills 35, Rams 32
Oct 9, 2016at RamsBills 30, Rams 19
Dec 9, 2012at BillsRams 15, Bills 12
Sep 28, 2008at RamsBills 31, Rams 14
Nov 21, 2004at BillsBills 37, Rams 17
Sep 20, 1998at BillsRams 34, Bills 33
Dec 10, 1995at RamsBills 45, Rams 27

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 11, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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