Rams @ Commanders

Sun, Nov 8 · Northwest Stadium

The line has it Rams 27, Commanders 21.Rams −5.5, total 47.5, as of Nov 4. A line moves until kickoff. From nflverse’s schedule file, which doesn’t name a book.

Rams at Commanders: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Rams8 games	Commanders7 games
	+0.9	−0.5
	−2.2	+3.3
	+48	−5
	−37	+21
	+36	−19
	+11	+12
	0.0	−0.5
	−0.8	0.0
	+0.2	−0.9
	−0.3	+0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Commanders

The Commanders are 0.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 18th of 32.fact · rankedits form →

Rams

The Rams are 1.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 22nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The Commanders lead the series 18–12–1 since 1967. The Rams have won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

The Commanders are 3–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Stefon Diggs, the Commanders' rushing yards are 85.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Rachaad White, the Commanders' points of margin are 19.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Jayden Daniels, the Commanders' points allowed are 8.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
The Rams are 4–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Puka Nacua, the Rams' passing yards are 132.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Davante Adams’ last game, the Rams' passing yards are 80.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Aaron Donald, the Rams' points are 7.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Dec 17, 2023	at Rams	Rams 28, Commanders 20
Oct 11, 2020	at Commanders	Rams 30, Commanders 10
Sep 17, 2017	at Rams	Commanders 27, Rams 20
Sep 20, 2015	at Commanders	Commanders 24, Rams 10
Dec 7, 2014	at Commanders	Rams 24, Commanders 0
Sep 16, 2012	at Rams	Rams 31, Commanders 28
Oct 2, 2011	at Rams	Commanders 17, Rams 10
Sep 26, 2010	at Rams	Rams 30, Commanders 16
Sep 20, 2009	at Commanders	Commanders 9, Rams 7
Oct 12, 2008	at Commanders	Rams 19, Commanders 17

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.