Falcons @ Saints

Mon, Oct 5, 2026

Falcons 45, Saints 24The Saints were favored by 1.5, and the Falcons covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The Saints had covered 7 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
The Saints were 3.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 8th of 32.fact · rankedits form →−22.5 against the line this game.

The Falcons were 1.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 18th of 32, and 4.0 better away than at home over their last 35, 4th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+22.5 against the line this game.

The Falcons lead the series 59–56 since 1967. The Falcons have won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

The Saints had covered 8 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
At home, the Saints' turnovers were 2.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.3 under expected.
Against a division opponent, the Falcons' turnovers were 3.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.3 under expected.
On the road, the Falcons' pass attempts were 9.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.3 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 4, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.