Browns @ Saints

Sun, Nov 8 · Caesars Superdome

The line has it Saints 23, Browns 20.Saints −3, total 42.5, as of Nov 4. A line moves until kickoff. From nflverse’s schedule file, which doesn’t name a book.

Browns at Saints: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Browns8 games	Saints7 games
	−5.5	+0.2
	−1.4	+4.6
	−22	−16
	−5	+43
	−8	+12
	−13	−28
	+0.1	−1.0
	+1.8	−0.2
	+0.1	+0.6
	0.0	+0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Saints

The Saints have covered 8 straight on the road, the longest active road cover streak in the NFL and tied for the 6th-longest since 1999.streakthe runs →
The Saints are 2.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 27th of 32.fact · rankedits form →

Browns

The Browns' points allowed are 8.2 lower at home than away against expected over their last 35 games, 31st of 32 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
The Browns have covered 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →
The Browns have won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
The Browns are 0.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 19th of 32, and 8.7 worse away than at home over their last 35, 31st of 32.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The Browns lead the series 13–7 since 1967. The Saints have won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Without Alvin Kamara, the Saints' pass attempts are 20.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Kendre Miller, the Saints' turnovers are 1.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Travis Etienne’s last game, the Saints' sacks taken are 1.1 under expected in 4 games. A −2.2 difference in sacks taken over expected since Travis Etienne’s last game vs with Travis Etienne is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were since Travis Etienne’s last game and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinwithout him →
The Browns have covered 7 of their last 10.countits form →
The Browns are 4–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Quinshon Judkins, the Browns' points allowed are 12.6 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 17, 2024	at Saints	Saints 35, Browns 14
Dec 24, 2022	at Browns	Saints 17, Browns 10
Sep 16, 2018	at Saints	Saints 21, Browns 18
Sep 14, 2014	at Browns	Browns 26, Saints 24
Oct 24, 2010	at Saints	Browns 30, Saints 17
Sep 10, 2006	at Browns	Saints 19, Browns 14
Nov 24, 2002	at Saints	Browns 24, Saints 15
Oct 31, 1999	at Saints	Browns 21, Saints 16
Dec 5, 1993	at Browns	Browns 17, Saints 13
Oct 14, 1990	at Saints	Saints 25, Browns 20

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.