Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Patriots @ Bills

Sun, Oct 4, 2026

Patriots 29, Bills 26The Bills were favored by 7, and the Patriots covered.

Patriots at Bills: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gamePatriots1 gameBills1 game
Points+5.7+3.4
Points allowed−0.2+6.3
Total offense, yards+63+2
Total defense, yards−31+57
Passing yards+34+19
Rushing yards+35−18
Yards an attempt+0.2+0.5
Sacks taken−1.3−1.4
Turnovers+0.7+0.6
Turnovers forced+0.7+0.6

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Bills

Patriots

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Bills

  • The Bills were 3.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 11th of 32.fact · rankedits form →−10.0 against the line this game.

Patriots

  • The Patriots had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • The Patriots had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • The Patriots were 4.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 25th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+10.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • The Bills had won 8 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • The Bills had won 8 of their last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, the Bills' rushing yards were 68.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.9 under expected.
  • The Patriots had won 8 of their last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • The Patriots had won 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, the Patriots' points were 15.0 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 4, 2026at BillsPatriots 29, Bills 26
Dec 14, 2025at PatriotsBills 35, Patriots 31
Oct 5, 2025at BillsPatriots 23, Bills 20
Jan 5, 2025at PatriotsPatriots 23, Bills 16
Dec 22, 2024at BillsBills 24, Patriots 21
Dec 31, 2023at BillsBills 27, Patriots 21
Oct 22, 2023at PatriotsPatriots 29, Bills 25
Jan 8, 2023at BillsBills 35, Patriots 23
Dec 1, 2022at PatriotsBills 24, Patriots 10
Jan 15, 2022at BillsBills 47, Patriots 17

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 3, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.