Patriots @
Bills
Patriots 29, Bills 26The Bills were favored by 7, and the Patriots covered.
| a game | Patriots1 game | Bills1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +5.7 | +3.4 |
| Points allowed | −0.2 | +6.3 |
| Total offense, yards | +63 | +2 |
| Total defense, yards | −31 | +57 |
| Passing yards | +34 | +19 |
| Rushing yards | +35 | −18 |
| Yards an attempt | +0.2 | +0.5 |
| Sacks taken | −1.3 | −1.4 |
| Turnovers | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Turnovers forced | +0.7 | +0.6 |
Who put up numbers
Bills
- Passing yardsJosh Allen253 passing yards
- Passing TDsJosh Allen1 passing TD
- Rushing yardsJames Cook75 rushing yards
Patriots
Analysis
Bills
- The Bills were 3.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 11th of 32.fact · rankedits form →−10.0 against the line this game.
Patriots
- The Patriots had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- The Patriots had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- The Patriots were 4.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 25th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+10.0 against the line this game.
The series
- The Patriots lead the series 75–46 since 1966.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- The Bills had won 8 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- The Bills had won 8 of their last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- At home, the Bills' rushing yards were 68.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 28.9 under expected.
- The Patriots had won 8 of their last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- The Patriots had won 7 of their last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- On the road, the Patriots' points were 15.0 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.2 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | at Bills | Patriots 29, Bills 26 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | at Patriots | Bills 35, Patriots 31 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | at Bills | Patriots 23, Bills 20 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | at Patriots | Patriots 23, Bills 16 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | at Bills | Bills 24, Patriots 21 |
| Dec 31, 2023 | at Bills | Bills 27, Patriots 21 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | at Patriots | Patriots 29, Bills 25 |
| Jan 8, 2023 | at Bills | Bills 35, Patriots 23 |
| Dec 1, 2022 | at Patriots | Bills 24, Patriots 10 |
| Jan 15, 2022 | at Bills | Bills 47, Patriots 17 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 3, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- A game with no box score sits out.