Putting Up Numbers· NFL

Dolphins @ Vikings

Sun, Oct 4, 2026

Vikings 15, Dolphins 10The Vikings were favored by 10, and the Dolphins covered.

Dolphins at Vikings: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameDolphins1 gameVikings1 game
Points−11.5−8.9
Points allowed−7.6−11.5
Total offense, yards−131+24
Total defense, yards+45−129
Passing yards−148+13
Rushing yards+8+10
Yards an attempt−1.9−0.9
Sacks taken−0.4+1.8
Turnovers−0.1−1.3
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Vikings

Dolphins

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Vikings

  • The Vikings had covered 8 straight, tied for the 9th-longest since 1999.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • The Vikings had covered 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • The Vikings had won 8 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 9.
  • The Vikings had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • The Vikings had won 4 straight as the underdog.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • The Vikings had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • The Vikings had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • The Vikings were 10.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 4th of 32, and 8.3 better at home than away over their last 35, 2nd of 32.fact · rankedits form →−5.0 against the line this game.

Dolphins

  • The Dolphins had failed to cover 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • The Dolphins had lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • The Dolphins were 8.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 29th of 32.fact · rankedits form →+5.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • The Dolphins lead the series 8–7 since 1972. The Vikings have won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, the Vikings' points were 19.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.1 under expected.
  • On the road, the Dolphins' sacks taken were 2.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.8 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 4, 2026at VikingsVikings 15, Dolphins 10
Oct 16, 2022at DolphinsVikings 24, Dolphins 16
Dec 16, 2018at VikingsVikings 41, Dolphins 17
Dec 21, 2014at DolphinsDolphins 37, Vikings 35
Sep 19, 2010at VikingsDolphins 14, Vikings 10
Nov 19, 2006at DolphinsDolphins 24, Vikings 20
Dec 21, 2002at VikingsVikings 20, Dolphins 17
Sep 10, 2000at VikingsVikings 13, Dolphins 7
Sep 25, 1994at VikingsVikings 38, Dolphins 35
Oct 2, 1988at DolphinsDolphins 24, Vikings 7

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 3, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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