Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Hull City @ Arsenal

Sat, Nov 7 · Premier League · Emirates Stadium

The odds have it Arsenal 2.71, Hull City 0.61.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Hull City at Arsenal: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameHull City9 gamesArsenal12 games
−0.36+0.18
−0.39−1.11
−0.61+0.41
+0.04−0.74
−4.4+0.9
+1.1−4.5
−0.21+1.32

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Arsenal

The series

  • Arsenal leads the series 8–1–1 since 2008-09. Arsenal has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Arsenal has won 8 of its last 10.countits form →
  • At home, Arsenal’s goals are 0.70 over expected in 5 games. A +1.12 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.thinthe split →
  • On the road, Hull City’s yellow cards are 1.8 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Feb 11, 2017at ArsenalArsenal 2, Hull City 0
Sep 17, 2016at Hull CityArsenal 4, Hull City 1
May 4, 2015at Hull CityArsenal 3, Hull City 1
Oct 18, 2014at ArsenalArsenal 2, Hull City 2
Apr 20, 2014at Hull CityArsenal 3, Hull City 0
Dec 4, 2013at ArsenalArsenal 2, Hull City 0
Mar 13, 2010at Hull CityArsenal 2, Hull City 1
Dec 19, 2009at ArsenalArsenal 3, Hull City 0
Jan 17, 2009at Hull CityArsenal 3, Hull City 1
Sep 27, 2008at ArsenalHull City 2, Arsenal 1

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.