Arsenal’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Arsenal was 0.70 goals over at home and 0.42 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 7. The plain averages are 2.40 and 1.14, a difference of 1.26.
Arsenal’s +1.12 at home vs away over expected ranks 4th of the 42 teams with 5 games on each side this season.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.70
away
−0.42
-101
A +1.12 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
2.40
1.14
0123
A +1.26 difference in goals at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 3 | 1.84 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | W | 1 | 1.55 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Chelsea | W | 2 | 1.88 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ Napoli | W | 1 | 1.89 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sunderland | W | 2 | 1.63 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 1.25 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Leeds United | W | 2 | 1.37 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Lille | W | 3 | 1.88 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Nottingham Forest | W | 1 | 1.52 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | T | 2 | 1.64 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Everton | W | 2 | 1.54 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Liverpool | W | 1 | 1.47 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.