Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Arsenal @ Liverpool

Sun, Nov 1, 2026

Arsenal 1, Liverpool 0

Arsenal at Liverpool: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameArsenal1 gameLiverpool1 game
Goals−0.45−1.35
Goals conceded−2.03−0.54
Expected goals−0.49+0.42
Expected goals conceded−0.20−0.89
Shots−2.3+4.8
Shots conceded+0.2−3.8
Points+2.13−1.02

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Arsenal

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Liverpool

  • Liverpool had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Liverpool had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

Arsenal

  • Arsenal had won 9 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

The series

If you squint

  • Arsenal had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Against a top-half team, Arsenal’s expected goals were 0.52 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.72 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Nov 1, 2026at LiverpoolArsenal 1, Liverpool 0
Jan 8, 2026at ArsenalLiverpool 0, Arsenal 0
Aug 31, 2025at LiverpoolLiverpool 1, Arsenal 0
May 11, 2025at LiverpoolLiverpool 2, Arsenal 2
Oct 27, 2024at ArsenalLiverpool 2, Arsenal 2
Feb 4, 2024at ArsenalArsenal 3, Liverpool 1
Dec 23, 2023at LiverpoolLiverpool 1, Arsenal 1
Apr 9, 2023at LiverpoolLiverpool 2, Arsenal 2
Oct 9, 2022at ArsenalArsenal 3, Liverpool 2
Mar 16, 2022at ArsenalLiverpool 2, Arsenal 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 31, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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