Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Liverpool @ Fenerbahce

Wed, Nov 4 · Champions League · Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium

The odds have it Fenerbahce 1.17, Liverpool 2.26.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Liverpool at Fenerbahce: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameLiverpool12 gamesFenerbahce3 games
+0.42−0.65
−0.31+1.33
+0.38−0.16
−0.30−0.35
+3.4−1.4
−2.3−1.4
+0.71−0.83

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Liverpool

If you squint

  • At home, Fenerbahce’s yellow cards are 1.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Liverpool has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
  • In the Champions League, Liverpool’s goals are 2.26 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • On the road, Liverpool’s points are 1.11 over expected in 5 games. A +1.28 difference in points over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 7 times in 100.thinthe split →

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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