Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Nottingham Forest @ Brentford

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Brentford 2, Nottingham Forest 0

Nottingham Forest at Brentford: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNottingham Forest1 gameBrentford1 game
Goals−1.37+0.45
Goals conceded+0.18−0.93
Expected goals−0.08−0.75
Expected goals conceded−1.09−0.29
Shots+1.0−5.4
Shots conceded−8.4−0.5
Points−1.08+1.26

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Brentford

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The series

If you squint

  • At home, Brentford’s expected goals were 0.41 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.02 under expected.
  • Against a bottom-half team, Brentford’s shots conceded were 2.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.0 under expected.
  • On the road, Nottingham Forest’s expected goals were 0.65 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.27 under expected.
  • Against a top-half team, Nottingham Forest’s yellow cards were 1.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at BrentfordBrentford 2, Nottingham Forest 0
Jan 25, 2026at BrentfordNottingham Forest 2, Brentford 0
Aug 17, 2025at Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest 3, Brentford 1
May 1, 2025at Nottingham ForestBrentford 2, Nottingham Forest 0
Dec 21, 2024at BrentfordNottingham Forest 2, Brentford 0
Jan 20, 2024at BrentfordBrentford 3, Nottingham Forest 2
Oct 1, 2023at Nottingham ForestBrentford 1, Nottingham Forest 1
Apr 29, 2023at BrentfordBrentford 2, Nottingham Forest 1
Nov 5, 2022at Nottingham ForestBrentford 2, Nottingham Forest 2

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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