Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Manchester United @ Chelsea

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Chelsea 2, Manchester United 0

Manchester United at Chelsea: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameManchester United1 gameChelsea1 game
Goals−1.61+0.30
Goals conceded−0.06−1.32
Expected goals−0.35+0.09
Expected goals conceded+0.01−0.47
Shots−0.5+5.2
Shots conceded+3.6−4.1
Points−1.20+1.33

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Chelsea

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The series

  • Manchester United leads the series 17–16–19 since 2002-03.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Against a bottom-half team, Chelsea’s shots were 5.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.6 over expected.
  • At home, Chelsea’s goals were 0.94 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.37 under expected.
  • Against a top-half team, Manchester United’s goals conceded were 0.73 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.37 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at ChelseaChelsea 2, Manchester United 0
Apr 18, 2026at ChelseaManchester United 1, Chelsea 0
Sep 20, 2025at Manchester UnitedManchester United 2, Chelsea 1
May 16, 2025at ChelseaChelsea 1, Manchester United 0
Nov 3, 2024at Manchester UnitedChelsea 1, Manchester United 1
Apr 4, 2024at ChelseaChelsea 4, Manchester United 3
Dec 6, 2023at Manchester UnitedManchester United 2, Chelsea 1
May 25, 2023at Manchester UnitedManchester United 4, Chelsea 1
Oct 22, 2022at ChelseaChelsea 1, Manchester United 1
Apr 28, 2022at Manchester UnitedChelsea 1, Manchester United 1

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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