Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Internazionale @ AC Milan

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

AC Milan 3, Internazionale 1

Internazionale at AC Milan: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameInternazionale1 gameAC Milan1 game
Goals−0.40+1.42
Goals conceded+1.02−1.02
Expected goals+0.73−1.02
Expected goals conceded−1.18−0.29
Shots+8.2−6.4
Shots conceded−6.80.0
Points−0.92+1.88

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

AC Milan

Internazionale

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Internazionale

  • Internazionale had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.

The series

  • Internazionale leads the series 23–21–11 since 2002-03. AC Milan has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, AC Milan’s yellow cards were 1.3 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.2 over expected.
  • Against a top-half team, AC Milan’s shots were 4.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.9 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at AC MilanAC Milan 3, Internazionale 1
Mar 8, 2026at AC MilanAC Milan 1, Internazionale 0
Nov 23, 2025at InternazionaleAC Milan 1, Internazionale 0
Feb 2, 2025at AC MilanAC Milan 1, Internazionale 1
Sep 22, 2024at InternazionaleAC Milan 2, Internazionale 1
Apr 22, 2024at AC MilanInternazionale 2, AC Milan 1
Sep 16, 2023at InternazionaleInternazionale 5, AC Milan 1
May 16, 2023at InternazionaleInternazionale 1, AC Milan 0
May 10, 2023at AC MilanInternazionale 2, AC Milan 0
Feb 5, 2023at InternazionaleInternazionale 1, AC Milan 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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