Werder Bremen @ Mainz

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Werder Bremen 3, Mainz 2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Mainz had won 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

Werder Bremen’s goals were 0.86 lower vs a top-half team than vs a bottom-half team against expected over its last 75 games, 119th of 119 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 0.94 over expected.

At home, Mainz’s shots were 5.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.4 over expected.
On the road, Werder Bremen’s shots conceded were 3.4 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.4 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.