Manchester City @ Aston Villa

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Aston Villa 2, Manchester City 1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Manchester City leads the series 28–10–5 since 2002-03. Aston Villa has won the last 3. Aston Villa has won 4 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

Against a top-half team, Aston Villa’s shots were 5.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.5 under expected.
After a Champions League game, Aston Villa’s shots conceded were 4.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.0 under expected.
Manchester City had won 9 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
On the road, Manchester City’s goals conceded were 1.34 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.35 over expected.
After a Champions League game, Manchester City’s expected goals conceded were 0.46 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.52 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.