Manchester City @ RB Leipzig

Wed, Nov 4 · Champions League · Red Bull Arena

The odds have it RB Leipzig 1.34, Manchester City 2.56.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Manchester City at RB Leipzig: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Manchester City12 games	RB Leipzig11 games
	+0.83	+0.70
	−0.30	−0.03
	+0.67	+0.58
	−0.50	+0.01
	+2.8	+2.2
	−3.9	−0.7
	+0.80	+0.39

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig has won 10 straight at home, tied for the longest active home winning streak in Europe.streakthe runs →

The series

Manchester City leads the series 4–1–1 since 2021-22. Manchester City has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

At home, RB Leipzig’s goal difference are 2.93 over expected in 5 games. A +4.93 difference in goal difference over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.thinthe split →
In the Champions League, RB Leipzig’s goal difference are 1.26 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Manchester City has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
In the Champions League, Manchester City’s shots are 4.4 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
On the road, Manchester City’s goals conceded are 1.01 under expected in 5 games. A −1.41 difference in goals conceded over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 15 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 28, 2023	at Manchester City	Manchester City 3, RB Leipzig 2
Oct 4, 2023	at RB Leipzig	Manchester City 3, RB Leipzig 1
Mar 14, 2023	at Manchester City	Manchester City 7, RB Leipzig 0
Feb 22, 2023	at RB Leipzig	RB Leipzig 1, Manchester City 1
Dec 7, 2021	at RB Leipzig	RB Leipzig 2, Manchester City 1
Sep 15, 2021	at Manchester City	Manchester City 6, RB Leipzig 3

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.