Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Nottingham Forest @ Ipswich Town

Fri, Oct 23, 2026

Ipswich Town 1, Nottingham Forest 1

Nottingham Forest at Ipswich Town: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNottingham Forest1 gameIpswich Town1 game
Goals−0.69−0.59
Goals conceded−0.75+0.14
Expected goals+0.69−0.79
Expected goals conceded−0.79+0.70
Shots+2.5−5.4
Shots conceded−6.0+1.7
Points−0.38−0.86

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Ipswich Town

Nottingham Forest

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The series

If you squint

  • Ipswich Town had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Against a bottom-half team, Ipswich Town’s points were 1.62 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.68 under expected.
  • At home, Ipswich Town’s expected goals conceded were 0.67 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.62 over expected.
  • On the road, Nottingham Forest’s expected goals were 0.66 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.62 over expected.
  • Against a top-half team, Nottingham Forest’s yellow cards were 1.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.1 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 23, 2026at Ipswich TownIpswich Town 1, Nottingham Forest 1
Mar 15, 2025at Ipswich TownNottingham Forest 4, Ipswich Town 2
Nov 30, 2024at Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest 1, Ipswich Town 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 22, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.