Arsenal @ Bayern Munich

Wed, Oct 21, 2026

Bayern Munich 2, Arsenal 2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Arsenal had won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

Bayern Munich had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
At home, Bayern Munich’s goals were 3.29 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.29 over expected.
In the Champions League, Bayern Munich’s shots were 5.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.6 under expected.
Arsenal had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Arsenal had won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
In the Champions League, Arsenal’s expected goals were 0.65 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.41 over expected.
On the road, Arsenal’s goals were 0.57 under expected in 5 games. A −1.33 difference in goals over expected away vs at home is unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 0.36 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 20, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.