Villarreal @ Liverpool

Tue, Oct 20, 2026

Liverpool 4, Villarreal 3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Liverpool had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

Liverpool leads the series 3–0 since 2021-22. Liverpool has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

In the Champions League, Liverpool’s goals were 2.37 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.03 over expected.
At home, Liverpool’s goal difference were 1.33 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.22 under expected.
In the Champions League, Villarreal’s expected goals conceded were 0.82 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.28 over expected.
On the road, Villarreal’s expected goals conceded were 0.29 under expected in 6 games. A −0.64 difference in expected goals conceded over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 19 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 0.28 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 19, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.