Putting Up Numbers· college football

UAB @ South Florida

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

South Florida 30, UAB 10South Florida was favored by 7.5, and South Florida covered.

UAB at South Florida: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameUAB1 gameSouth Florida1 game
Points−7.8+1.2
Points allowed+3.1−10.6
Total offense, yards−152−126
Total defense, yards−111−149
Touchdowns−0.9−2.4
Passer rating−35.8−37.9
Third downs−13.1%−1.3%
Sacks+1.1+3.4
Penalty yards−34.6−26.6
Turnovers forced−1.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.8−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

South Florida

UAB

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

South Florida

  • South Florida’s total yards were 150.7 higher in a conference game than in a nonconference game against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 134 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 25.9 under expected.
  • South Florida was 1.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 87th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.5 against the line this game.

UAB

  • UAB had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • UAB was 1.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 50th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • South Florida leads the series 4–2 since 2003. South Florida has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • South Florida had won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • South Florida had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • South Florida had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • South Florida was 2–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
  • In a conference game, South Florida’s carries were 4.9 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.2 over expected.
  • At home, South Florida’s rushing yards were 37.6 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 43.7 over expected.
  • UAB was 3–1–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • On the road, UAB’s carries were 6.8 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.5 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at South FloridaSouth Florida 30, UAB 10
Nov 22, 2025at UABSouth Florida 48, UAB 18
Oct 19, 2024at South FloridaSouth Florida 35, UAB 25
Oct 7, 2023at UABUAB 56, South Florida 35
Nov 3, 2004at UABSouth Florida 45, UAB 20
Nov 22, 2003at South FloridaUAB 22, South Florida 19

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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