Charlotte @ UAB

Sat, Nov 7 · Protective Stadium

The line has it UAB 28, Charlotte 20.UAB −8.5, total 47.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Charlotte at UAB: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Charlotte8 games	UAB8 games
	−9.5	−6.9
	+12.3	+0.8
	−91	−72
	+80	−62
	−1.3	−1.3
	−18.4	−23.3
	−14.0%	−0.7%
	−0.5	+0.5
	−15.3	−0.3
	−0.4	−0.2
	+0.8	+0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

UAB

UAB has won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →
UAB is 0.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 73rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Charlotte

Charlotte’s points of margin are 22.7 lower at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 136th of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
Charlotte is 4.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 112th of 136, and 21.0 better away than at home over its last 25, 1st of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The series is tied 2–2 since 2017.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

At home, UAB’s third-down conversion rate are 12.1% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
In a conference game, UAB’s penalty yards are 15.6 under expected in 4 games. A −35.3 difference in penalty yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 12 times in 100.thinthe split →
Charlotte has lost 9 of its last 10.countits form →
Charlotte has covered 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →
Charlotte is 4–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Conner Harrell, Charlotte’s third-down conversion rate are 20.0% under expected in 4 games. A −28.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected without Conner Harrell vs with Conner Harrell is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were without Conner Harrell and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinwithout him →
Since Cole Gonzales’ last game, Charlotte’s penalty yards are 26.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
In a conference game, Charlotte’s points allowed are 11.4 over expected in 4 games. A +15.9 difference in points allowed over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 9 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 30, 2024	at Charlotte	Charlotte 29, UAB 27
Oct 15, 2022	at UAB	UAB 34, Charlotte 20
Sep 29, 2018	at UAB	UAB 28, Charlotte 7
Oct 21, 2017	at Charlotte	Charlotte 25, UAB 24

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.