Texas State @ 
Boise State
Boise State 46, Texas State 45Boise State was favored by 10.5, and Texas State covered.
| a game | Texas State1 game | Boise State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +23.5 | +13.4 |
| Points allowed | +14.1 | +15.7 |
| Total offense, yards | +75 | +80 |
| Total defense, yards | +62 | −14 |
| Touchdowns | +2.6 | +3.2 |
| Passer rating | +23.0 | +19.8 |
| Third downs | +5.1% | +16.8% |
| Sacks | −0.2 | −0.9 |
| Penalty yards | +6.4 | −18.8 |
| Turnovers forced | +0.7 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.2 | +0.9 |
Who put up numbers
Boise State
- Passing yardsMaddux Madsen236 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsMax Cutforth3 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsDylan Riley86 rushing yards
Texas State
Analysis
Boise State
- Boise State had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
- Boise State had won 6 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
- Boise State had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
- Boise State was 4.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 29th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−9.5 against the line this game.
Texas State
- Texas State had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Texas State was 0.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 63rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+9.5 against the line this game.
The series
- Boise State leads the series 1–0 since 2026.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Boise State had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Boise State was 3–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- At night, Boise State’s penalty yards were 32.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.4 under expected.
- At home, Boise State’s rushing yards were 87.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 60.8 under expected.
- In a conference game, Boise State’s rushing yards were 55.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 60.8 under expected.
- Texas State had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Against a ranked opponent, Texas State’s points allowed were 26.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.3 over expected.
- At night, Texas State’s pass attempts were 10.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.9 over expected.
- On the road, Texas State’s points of margin were 25.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.8 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | at Boise State | Boise State 46, Texas State 45 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.