Ohio State @ USC

Sat, Oct 31, 2026 · No. 2 at unranked

USC 30, Ohio State 18Ohio State was favored by 6.5, and USC covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

USC’s pass attempts were 9.3 higher vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 2nd of 75 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 12.9 under expected.
USC was 6.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 125th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+18.5 against the line this game.

Ohio State had beaten 13 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Ohio State had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Ohio State had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Ohio State had won 12 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Ohio State was 0.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 62nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−18.5 against the line this game.

USC leads the series 14–10–1 since 1937. USC has won 5 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

USC had won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
USC had failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
USC had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Against a ranked opponent, USC’s third-down conversion rate were 22.7% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.3% under expected.
Ohio State had won 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Ohio State was 4–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
Against an unranked opponent, Ohio State’s points were 10.9 over expected in 4 games. A +9.9 difference in points over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 11 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 17.5 under expected.
On the road, Ohio State’s third-down conversion rate were 10.0% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.8% over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.