USC’s pass attempts vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, USC was 5.4 pass attempts over vs a ranked opponent and 0.7 pass attempts under vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 7 games against 18. The plain averages are 39.1 and 32.2, a difference of 6.9. Both neutral-site games were vs an unranked opponent. Both bowl and playoff games were vs an unranked opponent.
USC’s +6.1 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 7th of the 77 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
pass attempts a game over expected
A +6.1 difference in pass attempts over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up 14 times in 100.
A +6.9 difference in pass attempts vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UCLA | W | 36 | 41.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Notre Dame | L | 49 | 36.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Texas A&M (neutral) | W | 39 | 40.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Missouri State | W | 27 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 30 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 28 | 30.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 26 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 43 | 33.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 32 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Notre Dame | L | 42 | 35.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 23 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 34 | 29.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 32 | 31.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 44 | 30.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUCLA | W | 29 | 29.8 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs TCU (neutral) | L | 30 | 34.7 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 36 | 33.0 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 31 | 36.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 30 | 34.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 32 | 32.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOregon | L | 42 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Washington | W | 34 | 30.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Penn State | W | 33 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 50 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 22 | 34.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.